Ice core evidence for a second volcanic eruption around 1809 in the Northern Hemisphere

A volcanic signal observed in ice cores from both polar regions six years prior to Tambora is attributed to an unknown tropical eruption in 1809. Recovery of dacitic tephra from the 1809 horizon in a Yukon ice core (Eclipse) that is chemically distinct from andesitic 1809 tephra found in Antarctic ice cores indicates a second eruption in the Northern Hemisphere at this time. Together with the similar magnitude and timing of the 1809 volcanic signal in the Arctic and Antarctic, this could suggest a large tropical eruption produced the sulfate and Antarctic tephra and a minor Northern Hemisphere eruption produced the Eclipse tephra. Nonetheless, the possibility that there were coincidental eruptions of similar magnitude in both hemispheres, rather than a single tropical eruption, should not be discounted. Correctly attributing the source of the 1809 volcanic signal has important implications for modeling the magnitude and latitudinal distribution of volcanic radiative forcing

Robust multi-year climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems

Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures is weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes towards improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption

Samoa technical report - Review of volcanic hazard maps for Savai'i and Upolu

Both main islands of Samoa, Savai'i and Upolu need to be considered as potentially volcanically active. The most recent eruptions in historic times happened on Savai'i in 1905-1911, 1902 and 1760 (estimated). Though detailed volcanic studies and dating of volcanic events are very limited there is evidence for repeated volcanic activity on both islands since the time of human occupation of the islands marked by prominent and fresh appearance of tuff cones as Tafua (= fire mountain) Savai'i, the island of Apolima, Tafua Upolu and offshore Cape Tapaga. This report examines the volcanic risks for both islands and defines for disaster management considerations potential eruption scenarios based on eyewitness accounts of previous eruptions, geological field evidence, remote sensing information and experiences from similar volcanoes. A detailed timeline of events, potential impacts and required emergency response activities are listed for the five potential eruption types (1) long-term lava field (2) short-term spatter-cone (3) explosive phreatomagmatic (4) explosive scoria-cone and (5) submarine flank collapse. Given the nature of volcanism in Samoa with hundreds of individual "one-off" volcanoes scattered along zones of structural weakness within the Savai'i - Upolu Platform - predicting the exact location of future eruption centres is impossible. At the current stage of knowledge a presentation of a volcanic hazard map is inadequate and would require additional baseline studies to statistically define recurrence intervals and areas of higher volcanic activity. Taking these limitations into account, maps showing the relative potential for new eruption vents on Upolu and Savai'i are derived from geomorphologic features. To improve our understanding and management of the volcanic risks of Samoa, suggestions for achievable future work are listed and prioritised. These recommendations include geological/volcanological baseline studies (e.g. dating/detailed analyses of past events, rock chemistry, volcano structure); installation of early warning and monitoring network (e.g. permanent GPS, seismometers); and disaster preparedness and volcanic crisis response planning

Stratosphere troposphere coupling: the influence of volcanic eruptions

Stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by major volcanic eruptions modify the radiative and dynamical properties of the troposphere and stratosphere through their reflection of solar radiation and absorption of infrared radiation. At the Earth's surface, the primary consequence of a large eruption is cooling, however, it has long been known that major tropical eruptions tend to be followed by warmer than usual winters over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents. This volcanic "winter-warming" effect in the NH is understood to be the result of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from heating in the stratosphere, and is often described as positive anomalies of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) that propagate downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. In the southern hemisphere, climate models tend to also predict a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) response to volcanic eruptions, but this is generally inconsistent with post-eruption observations during the 20th century. We review present understanding of the influence of volcanic eruptions on the large scale modes of atmospheric variability in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Using models of varying complexity, including an aerosol-climate model, an Earth system model, and CMIP5 simulations, we assess the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed post-eruption climatic and dynamical anomalies. We will also address the parametrization of volcanic eruptions in simulations of the past climate, and identify possibilities for improvemen

Effect of volcanic debris on stratospheric ion conductivity

The reduction is reported of stratospheric ion conductivities in the altitude range of 20 to 27 km attributable to the aerosols injected into the stratosphere by the eruption of volcano Nevado Del Ruiz on November 13, 1985. Three balloon experiments were conducted from Hyderabad, India (17.5 N, 78.6 E) carrying a Langmuir probe payload for measuring stratospheric ion conductivities. The first flight took place about 9 months before the volcanic eruption, the second 3 weeks after the eruption and the third about a year later. Lidar observations from Japan, Hawaii and Europe reported detection of aerosol layers in the 18 to 25 km altitude range attributable to the Nevado Del Ruiz volcanic eruption. A comparison of the conductivity profiles shows that the reduction of ion conductivities is: 57.3 percent at 20 km and 31 percent at 25 km. A year after the eruption, conductivities at all heights tended to recover